« Rudy's World War | Main | Wilson Released »

October 26, 2007

When There Isn't A National Primary, National Polls Don't Matter

Mark Mellman gets it:
"If there was a law requiring relevance, national polls would be illegal."
-- Pollster Mark Mellman, quoted in Salon, on polls showing Sen. Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic race.
For some reason or another, national polls are regurgitated and promoted far more than polls that actually mean anything - those in early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (though, given undecided rates and how hard caucuses are to poll, even those are of limited value this early on). At some level the media is unable to fathom that the entire nation doesn't vote at once in a presidential primary; if it did, then this obsession with national polling would make sense, but in a system where an Iowan's vote is worth orders of magnitude more than a Californian's, it's just a waste of time.
If you want proof of this, look through PollingReport's old 2004 national primary polls. A poll taken from October 27 to 29 shows Dean, Lieberman, Gephardt, Kerry, and Clark, in that order. An early November poll shows Dean, Clark, Gephardt, Lieberman, then Kerry. Sharpton beats Edwards in both. Suffice it to say, that's not how the primary turned out.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d834517f4f69e200e54efef40b8833

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference When There Isn't A National Primary, National Polls Don't Matter:

Comments

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment